Monday, January 26, 2009

Memparipurnakan Evolusi Ekonomi Indonesia

Krisis ekonomi adalah proses penyesuaian suatu struktur perekonomian dalam proses evolusinya. Krisis ekonomi mendorong adanya koreksi dari beberapa ekonom sebagai mekanisme adaptasi alamiah untuk memperbaiki “kinerja” perekonomian saat ini. Setiap koreksi merupakan bagian dari proses penyesuaian perekonomian Indonesia terhadap perubahan lingkungan.

Serupa dengan evolusi alamiah mekanisme koreksi dapat berupa proses anagenesis dan cladeogenesis. Pendekatan koreksi terhadap bagian-bagian tertentu dalam suatu sistem perekonomian serupa dengan proses cladeogenesis. Hal ini tampak jelas dalam perekonomian Indonesia pasca krisis 1998. Sementara, pendekatan koreksi terhadap sistem sampai dengan landasan epistimologis ilmu ekonomi merupakan proses koreksi yang serupa dengan proses anagenesis. Kondisi ini pernah terjadi pada peralihan sistem ekonomi orde lama ke orde baru.

Umumnya para ekonom yang masih mempercayai prinsip-prinsip ekonomi ortodoks yang menempatkan manusia sebagai makhluk ekonomi yang rasional menggunakan pendekatan pertama dalam melakukan koreksi terhadap perekonomian. Koreksi terhadap perekonomian dalam pendekatan ini diprioritaskan untuk memperbaiki kinerja sistem perekonomian tanpa meninggalkan prinsip-prinsip dasar homoeconomicus dalam implementasinya. Perbaikan institusi perekonomian baik infrastruktur maupun suprastruktur perekonomian menjadi jalan utama dalam mengkoreksi perekonomian dari krisis ekonomi.

Pendekatan kedua dilakukan melalui pendekatan yang mengkoreksi prinsip-prinsip dalam sistem perekonomian namun juga terhadap metodologi ilmu ekonomi. Para ekonom dengan yang menggunakan pendekatan ini umumnya menolak asumsi rasionalitas yang melekat secara inheren pada mazhab ekonomi ortodoks. Contoh terkini bagaimana implementasi pendekatan kedua ini adalah pembentukkan Grameen Bank di Bangladesh.

Apa yang terjadi di Grameen Bank serupa dengan yang pernah dirintis oleh para ekonom seperti Mubyarto, Dawam Rahardjo dan Sri Edi Swasono. Para ekonom tersebut memiliki perspektif berbeda tentang cara perekonomian Indonesia bekerja dengan metode yang “sangat Indonesia” dan berbeda dengan metode rasionalitas dalam ilmu ekonomi ortodoks. Pendekatan alternatif ini dalam beberapa publikasi dikenal dengan ekonomi pancasila dan demokrasi ekonomi. Dua pendekatan heteorodoks ini diperkenalkan oleh dua ekonom senior dari dua Fakultas Ekonomi terpandang di negeri ini.

Berdasarkan konteks di atas pertanyaan tentang posisi ilmu ekonomi ortodoks maupun heterodoks dalam proses keparipurnaan evolusi ekonomi Indonesia menjadi relevan. Sebelum menjawabnya tidak ada salahnya jika kita melihat kondisi saat ini perekonomian Indonesia. Kondisi saat ini perekonomian Indonesia yang sering pula disebut oleh sebagai hadiah-hadiah masa lalu dari seluruh proses evolusi baik secara anagenesis maupun cladeogenesis. Anagenesis terjadi pada saat perubahan perekonomian orde lama ke orde baru, sementara koreksi sistem perekonomian pasca krisis tahun 1998 menggambarkan cladeogenesis pada perekonomian Indonesia. Selain kondisi saat ini, hal yang tidak kalah pentingnya untuk dipertimbangkan adalah potensi dan lingkungan ekonomi Indonesia di masa depan.

Pada situasi seperti inilah ada baiknya kita melihat bagaimana perkembangan aplikasi ilmu ekonomi heteodoks yang digagas oleh Muhammad Yunus di Bangladesh melalui Grameen Banknya. Dalam berbagai catatan perkembangan Grameen Bank-nya terdapat salah satu simpulan penting yang dapat diangkat yaitu Muhammad Yunus meskipun belum mampu mengembangkan ilmu ekonomi heterodoks yang sesuai dengan negaranya namun beliau mampu mengembangkan aplikasi ilmu ekonomi heterodoks di Bangladesh. Proses tersebut tidak terlepas dari adaptasi baik yang dilakukan oleh Muhammad Yunus melalui pengenalan terhadap kondisi internal masyarakatnya yang memiliki struktur asumsi berbeda dengan struktur masyarakat dalam ilmu ekonomi heterodoks.

Lalu bagaimana dengan Indonesia? Ada baiknya para ekonom mulai lebih jernih dalam melihat persoalan perekonomian Indonesia. Setiap ekonom harus mampu keluar dari kotak mazhab mereka masing-masing dalam melihat karakter pelaku ekonomi di Indonesia yang masih terdiri dari pelaku sektor modern dan sektor tradisional yang saling diklaim oleh para ekonom ortodoks maupun heterodoks terdapat dalam struktur ekonomi yang terpisah satu dengan yang lain. Hal tersebut dikonfirmasi oleh data statistik yang menunjukkan bahwa lebih dari 50% masyarakat Indonesia bekerja di sektor pertanian yang menyumbang tidak lebih dari 30% dari produktivitas nasional saat ini.

Kondisi di atas secara gamblang menunjukkan bahwa anagenesis yang terjadi dalam perekonomian Indonesia tidak terjadi secara sempurna. Proses anagenesis perekonomian Indonesia terjadi secara sektoral atau dapat dianalogikan terjadi hanya pada bagian kepala dan tenggorokan. Kondisi tersebut pasca tahun 1998 ternyata mengalami proses cladeogenesis yang cepat sehingga membentuk kondisi perekonomian Indonesia seperti saat ini. Sementara bagian dada, perut dan organ lain dalam perekonomian Indonesia tampak hanya mengalami cladeogenesis dari struktur perekonomian Indonesia di awal kemerdekaan.

Sejauh ini solusi yang ditawarkan oleh para ekonom ortodoks belum optimal mendorong proses anagenesis perekonomian Indonesia untuk serupa dengan kondisi lingkungan ekonomi baik regional Asia maupun global. Sementara di sisi lain para ekonom heterodoks masih berusaha mempertahankan bentuk struktur tubuh perekonomian Indonesia sama seperti kondisi di awal kemerdekaan yang diklaim sebagai kondisi ideal ekonomi Indonesia. Pencegahan terhadap proses anagesis menjadi salah satu jalan dalam mempertahankan kondisi ideal ini.

Pada situasi di atas diperlukan kearifan dari setiap unsur untuk menentukan arah perekonomian Indonesia apakah akan menyesuaikan diri secara total atau berproses anagenesis atau akan melakukan proses cladeogenesis. Hal ini menjadi suatu agenda besar yang harus diselesaikan oleh setiap pemimpin dan seluruh ekonom di negeri ini dalam memparipurnakan proses evolusi ekonomi Indonesia.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

All stories about cut down energy prices in Indonesian Economy:

  1. What comes next after cutting energy prices? from The Jakarta Post: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/01/16/what-comes-next-after-cutting-energy-prices.html
  2. Indonesia economy: Price cuts from Economist Intelligence Unit; http://www.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=VWArticleVW3&article_id=124144197&country_id=1810000181&page_title=Latest+analysis&rf=0
  3. Danareksa: Can Indonesian consumers save the day? from The Jakarta Post ; http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/01/22/danareksa-can-indonesian-consumers-save-day.html

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Five Recent Indonesia Economic Issues: Second Week of January

1. 72% of Standby Loan to Patch Up Deficit : http://www.bisnis.com/servlet/page?_pageid=127&_dad=portal30&_schema=PORTAL30&vnw_lang_id=1&ptopik=ENG&cdate=15-JAN-2009&inw_id=649463
2. Stimulus Lowered to IDR27 Trillion 14 Industry Sectors Cancelled to Receive VAT Relief from Govt : http://www.bisnis.com/servlet/page?_pageid=127&_dad=portal30&_schema=PORTAL30&vnw_lang_id=1&ptopik=ENG&cdate=15-JAN-2009&inw_id=649472
3. Calls to ease foreigners’ real estate rules in Indonesia : http://www.property-report.com/em_top_stories.php?id=2196&date=140109
4. Asian Rate Cuts, Spending to Propel Recovery, Economists Say : http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a40jWwdXQDC8
5. Indonesia economy: Outlook - Growth to slow as capital inflows dry up : http://www.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=VWArticleVW3&article_id=944147079&country_id=1810000181&page_title=Latest+analysis&rf=0

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Free Market Myth by Dean Baker

Regulation is everywhere. Let’s choose who benefits.

The extraordinary financial collapse of recent months has been commonly described as a testament to the failure of deregulation. The events are indeed testament to a failure—a failure of public policy. Blaming deregulation is misleading.

In general, political debates over regulation have been wrongly cast as disputes over the extent of regulation, with conservatives assumed to prefer less regulation, while liberals prefer more. In fact conservatives do not necessarily desire less regulation, nor do liberals necessarily desire more. Conservatives support regulatory structures that cause income to flow upward, while liberals support regulatory structures that promote equality. “Less” regulation does not imply greater inequality, nor is the reverse true.

Framing regulation debates in terms of more and less is not only inaccurate; it hugely biases the argument toward conservative positions by characterizing an extremely intrusive structure of, for example, patent and copyright rules, as the free market. In the realm of insurance and finance over the last two decades, calls for deregulation have been cover for rules tilted starkly toward corporate interests. And the recent change in bankruptcy law, hailed by conservatives, requires much greater government involvement in the economy.

False ideological claims have circumscribed the public debate over regulation and blinded us to the wide range of choices we can make. Without these claims, what would guide regulatory policy? What kinds of choices would we have?

* * *

Patent and copyright protection are good examples of government policies obscured in the debate. They are forms of regulation, not elements of a “free market.”

It does not matter that we call patents and copyrights “property” or even that we have a clause in the Constitution that authorizes Congress to grant patents and copyrights. Suppose autoworkers were given a property right to a job in the automobile industry, a right they could even sell. Would anyone say that this right to a job is part of the free market?

Patents and copyrights are government-granted protections designed for a specific public purpose, as stated in the Constitution: “to promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts.” But granting intellectual property rights is one of many possible mechanisms for accomplishing this important public goal. Whether patents and copyrights are the most effective mechanisms for the promotion of the arts and sciences is an empirical question. And the answer could be different depending on the specific social and economic circumstances. However, we cannot have a serious discussion of the relative merits of patents and copyrights until we recognize that these are public policies and not intrinsic features of the free market. Debates about both patent and copyright have been hugely distorted by the failure to recognize this obvious fact.

In the case of patent protection, policy disputes arise most frequently with regard to prescription drugs. If drugs were sold in a competitive market (i.e., without patent protection), the overwhelming majority of drugs would sell for just a few dollars per prescription. Wal-Mart and other major drug store chains now sell most generic drugs for less than $10 per prescription—we know these drugs can be manufactured safely and sold profitably at low prices.

The drugs available as generics are not chemically distinct from their brand-name counterparts that often sell for hundreds of dollars per prescription. The only difference is that the latter, as a group, enjoys a government-guaranteed monopoly. Patents constitute a government policy that effectively raises drug prices by several thousand percent above the free market price.

Recognizing this should be the starting point in any policy debate. The next question is whether this policy for supporting innovation is the best mechanism for financing the research and development of new drugs. It clearly is not the only one.

The government could, for example, support drug research through a prize system in which it buys drug patents and then places them in the public domain so that newly developed drugs could be manufactured and sold as generics.

Alternatively, the government could pay for the research upfront and make all research findings and patents fully public. It already spends $30 billion a year financing biomedical research through the National Institutes of Health, an amount almost as high as the pharmaceutical industry claims to spend on its research. NIH research is highly respected, with almost all observers agreeing that the money is, on the whole, extremely well spent. While the NIH focuses on basic research (it also does some later-stage drug research, including clinical testing), there is no obvious reason why the government could not simply double its commitment to biomedical research in order to replace the research and development currently supported by grants of patent monopolies.

But the government may wish to use a different mechanism to encourage drug development. It may choose to establish a small number of master contractors, who would then contract out the awarding of research funds so as to minimize the potential for political interference. Regardless of the structure a particular program would take, expansion of direct funding is clearly feasible.

There would also be large public benefits in addition to lowering the price of drugs to their marginal cost. Eliminating huge monopoly rents associated with drug patents would take away the incentive for drug companies to push drugs in cases where they may not be especially beneficial, or even potentially harmful. Nor would there be incentive to conceal research findings that indicate a drug’s weak performance. Furthermore, by placing all research findings in the public domain, so that scientists can quickly benefit from the research done by others, the process of drug innovation would likely accelerate.

Whether a patent-buyout system or direct public funding would be preferable to the current patent system is obviously debatable; the point is that patent is just one mechanism among many that could facilitate prescription-drug research. And it is one that involves granting monopoly rents to large drug companies.

It is important to establish that patents are a form of regulation because there are many venues in which the regulation of prescription drugs has been a major issue, with those who would see prices fall cast as opponents of the free market. For example, the ongoing push to have Medicare bargain for lower prices for drugs bought as part of its prescription drug benefit is widely viewed as interference in the free market. Even The New York Times and other highly respected media outlets often present the argument about Medicare-negotiated drug prices as a debate between proponents of free markets and of government intervention. When we sweep away ideology, we see that it is a debate between two regulatory strategies for keeping drug prices down.

* * *

There is a similar story with copyrights, although the economic waste is even larger and the enforcement measures even more perverse. In the Internet age, almost any printed or recorded material—music, movies, books, video games—can be instantly transferred anywhere in the world at almost no cost. However, rather than allowing the public to enjoy the full benefit of this technology, the government has created a dizzying array of new laws and restrictions designed to make it more difficult, and legally more risky, to pass along material that is subject to copyright protection.

As with drug patents, copyrights serve an important public purpose. They provide an incentive to produce creative and artistic work. But to protect copyright, the government has imposed an aggressive sanction regime even for seemingly minor offenses. In one case, a woman in Minnesota faced a fine of more than $200,000 for allowing people to download music from her computer. Universities have been told to police dorm rooms to ensure that students are not downloading material in violation of copyright, and they have been encouraged to conduct classes teaching that it is wrong to make unauthorized copies of copyrighted material.

The government has repeatedly prohibited the production of various types of hardware until protections could be installed to prevent the duplication of copyrighted material. It has banned the development of software that can break through copyright protections. In one case a Russian computer scientist was arrested by the FBI after a conference presentation in which he described a way to get around a form of copyright protection.

The list of extraordinary government measures that have been developed to enhance copyright protection is lengthy. Remarkably, these measures are never described as forms of government regulation. They are treated as enforcement measures necessary to protect copyright. However, just as patents are not the only way to encourage innovation, a government-granted monopoly with extensive rules and heavy-handed enforcement is not the only way to promote creativity.

A vast amount of creative and artistic work is already supported through mechanisms that do not depend on copyright protection. Private foundations are a major alternative source of support, as are the limited funds available through public programs such as the National Endowments for the Arts and Humanities. Colleges and universities are probably the largest source of funding not dependent on copyright. Professors are expected to do research and writing in addition to their teaching responsibilities.

It is easy to envision mechanisms to expand support for creative and artistic work outside the copyright regime. For example, it would be possible to design a modest tax credit for individuals who either support creative work directly or contribute to organizations that support such work. The credit could be modeled after the tax deduction for nonprofits or charities. Even a modest tax credit (e.g., $100 per person)—which taxpayers could allocate to an artist, writer, musician, or film producer of their choice—would likely be sufficient to fund almost all of the work currently supported by the copyright system.

Alternatives to copyright are feasible and probably far more efficient than the copyright system. And they would replace a gigantic array of enforcement measures that can themselves be seen as unnecessary forms of government intervention into the economy.

* * *

A final example of excessive government regulation, never discussed as such, is the bankruptcy-reform bill that passed Congress in 2005. This bill substantially strengthened the conditions imposed on people seeking bankruptcy protection, making such protection a much less attractive option.

The public debate over the bill dealt in liberal/conservative caricatures that completely misrepresented what was at stake. The liberal argument relied on sympathy for the people seeking bankruptcy; it drew on studies showing that the great majority of people seeking bankruptcy had not been spendthrifts who deliberately ran up huge credit card debts, but rather had fallen on hard times as result of job loss, medical emergencies, or family breakup. The opponents of stricter conditions argued that these people needed and deserved the break that bankruptcy allows.

The conservative argument centered on individual responsibility. No one forced anyone to take on debt; these people voluntarily chose to do so. Everyone knows that bad things can happen. Those seeking bankruptcy protection should have taken precautions.

This version of bankruptcy reform undoubtedly resonated with those inclined to accept that people succeed or fail largely as a result of their own actions, but, most importantly, it obscured the real issue that the bill addressed: to what lengths should the government go to collect unpaid bills? The party seeking the aid of the government in this story is the creditor, not the debtor.

Under the preexisting bankruptcy law, creditors could lay claim to most of the debtors’ assets and in some cases place liens on future earnings. The new law hugely expanded the creditors’ claims on future earnings. This means that the government will be far more involved in bill collection in the future than it has been in the past, possibly monitoring the wages of millions of individuals in bankruptcy who still have debts to creditors. (For those who worry about the negative incentives caused by taxation, it is worth noting that having money deducted from paychecks to pay creditors provides the same disincentive to work.)

The individual-responsibility line could have been applied just as validly to the creditors in this story as it was the debtors. Part of being a successful business involves knowing under what circumstances to extend credit. No one forced businesses to extend credit to the people who subsequently declared bankruptcy. They exercised bad judgment in extending credit to people who were not good credit risks. Why should the government step in to help businesses that fail to assess credit risk? The ideological battle around the bill was a distraction. It was an effort to get the government more actively involved in helping the banks. It’s that simple.

Other cases in which the conservative position arguably requires more government involvement in the economy than the liberal position abound. For years Ben and Jerry’s Homemade has fought attempts by state governments to ban labeling dairy products as free of recombinant bovine growth hormone. Some pressure groups associated with the dairy indutry argue that the rBGH-free label implies that bovine growth hormones are harmful, which has not been established by the Food and Drug Administration. Of course, Ben and Jerry’s Homemade is not trying to prevent its competitors from assuring the public that their ice cream is safe. It is trying to make a truthful claim about its own ice cream.

In the same vein, the Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently prohibited a meatpacker from testing its cattle for mad cow disease. The meatpacker had intended to privately test all of its cattle, whereas the USDA tests only 1 percent of cattle. But the USDA, arguing that full testing would cause the public to question the safety of other meat, moved to prevent it.

To be fair, rarely does either side argue against regulation as such. The real issue is the structure of regulation and its impact on economic outcomes, especially income distribution.

Let’s return to the financial crisis with this in mind. In the decades preceding the financial collapse, regulations designed to protect the public and to ensure the stability of the financial system were considerably weakened, but the system was (and is) quite far from being deregulated.

The key regulation that remained in place was the “too-big-to-fail” doctrine. Essentially, the banks and other financial institutions took enormous risks with an implicit guarantee that their creditors could count on the protection of the U.S. government if things went badly. For everyone except the creditors of Lehman Brothers and the preferred shareholders of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, this gamble proved correct.

This one-sided giveaway was not deregulation. Had those setting financial policy over the last three decades been committed to deregulation, they would have assured financial markets that financial institutions making bad investments would go out of business and that their creditors would be out of luck. The Federal Reserve Board and the Treasury would have warned that investors were acting at their own risk when they put money in Bear Stearns, AIG, and the rest.

In the context of a too-big-to-fail principle, the removal of restrictions on leverage (investment banks were allowed to leverage their capital at a ratio of forty-to-one compared to just ten-to-one for commercial banks) and the relaxation of other prudential regulation (the nominal value of credit default swaps, a new class of derivative instruments, grew to more than $70 trillion in a nearly unregulated market) essentially gave the banks a license to wager with taxpayers’ money.

Banks did exactly what economic theory predicts. They took huge risks, leveraging themselves to the hilt with questionable assets, knowing that they would gain as long as the housing bubble held up. And the banks did so with willing accomplices among pension funds, hedge funds, and other investors because these investors knew that the government would rescue them if things went badly.

Deregulation can be a principled position held by true believers in a free market. But Wall Streeters all wanted one-sided regulation that provided them with an enormous government security blanket without any costs or conditions. None of the Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan crew ever went to lobby Congress for an explicit repeal of the too-big-to-fail doctrine. And while many on Wall Street lost their jobs when the bubble burst, the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars that banking executives earned during the good times are theirs to keep. Even with the market collapse, the vast majority of them are almost certainly better off than they would have been had they done honest work over the last decade.

* * *

If the real debate is over the type rather than extent of regulation, then why is it always framed as the latter? For conservatives, the answer is obvious. Many Americans embrace the idea of free markets and hold a deep aversion to government. Faith in government ebbs and flows, even in the most liberal times. It will almost always be advantageous, then, to associate a political position with support of the free market.

It is less apparent why liberals would be so eager to accept such a disadvantageous caricature of their position. The answer requires digging a bit deeper into what their position implies about the nature of the economy and economic outcomes.

Like conservatives, liberals generally acknowledge that people get ahead as a result of their skills and hard work, with some luck thrown in. The main difference in the liberal and conservative views of the economy is that liberals are more likely to believe that many people face serious impediments to their success and do not get the same chance as people from wealthier backgrounds. Liberals are also likely to feel guilty about the difference in opportunities and therefore support political measures that will reduce the gap and help those at the bottom. However, most liberals still accept the proposition that the distribution of income is fundamentally determined by the market rather than political decisions embodied in regulations such as patents, copyrights, and bankruptcy law.

But what if we accept a view that virtually every facet of the economy is shaped by policies that could easily be altered? Investment bankers get incredibly rich because the government gives them the shelter of too-big-to-fail but doesn’t impose any serious prudential regulation in return. Bill Gates gets incredibly rich because, through copyright and patents, the government gives him a monopoly on the operating system that is (or was) used by 90 percent of the computers in the world.

Doctors are well-paid because, unlike less politically connected workers, they enjoy protection from international competition. The same is true for lawyers and other highly paid professionals. The six-figure salaries depend less on skill and hard work than on being able to structure labor markets in ways that autoworkers, textile workers, and cab drivers cannot.

There is a long list of professional licensing requirements (many of which have nothing to do with maintaining quality standards) that make it difficult for foreign professionals to work in the United States. While trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement have been designed explicitly to eliminate institutional barriers that obstruct investment in developing countries and the free flow of manufactured goods back into the United States, there has been no comparable effort to reduce or eliminate the barriers that obstruct highly educated professionals in the developing world from practicing their professions in the United States. Many ambitious professionals from the developing world do manage to overcome these barriers, but professionals in the United States still enjoy a far greater level of protection from international competition than less highly-educated workers.

* * *

The less-versus-more framing of regulation supports the premise that there is in principle an unregulated market out there and that some of us wish to rein in this unregulated market while others would leave it alone. This is consistent with the idea that large inequalities in income distribution just happen as a result of market forces. But as the above examples illustrate, no one is really talking about an unregulated market—rather we are all just talking about whom the regulation is designed to benefit. Distribution of income has never preceded the intervention of government.

The government is always present, steering the benefits in different directions depending on who is in charge. Accepting this view provides a political vantage point much better suited to the case for progressive regulation. After all, conservatives want the big hand of government in the market as well. They just want the handouts all to go to those at the top.

This expansive view of regulation puts everything up for grabs, including the six-figure salaries of many of those arguing the liberal position. Do liberals really want everyone asking if we can have the same economic benefits by removing trade barriers in physicians’ and lawyers’ services that we gain by removing barriers to clothes and cars? Liberals, too, are invested in the obfuscation that less-versus-more provides.

Even so, the catastrophe produced by the one-sided deregulation of the financial industry, coupled with a long list of regulatory failures in other areas, will almost certainly lead to a serious rethinking of regulatory policy in the years ahead. It remains to be seen whether this rethinking will go beyond the familiar debate. We know that when we emerge from the current crisis the economy will be extensively regulated. The questions is, to whose benefit?

Disclaimer: This is taken from Boston Reviews

Thursday, January 8, 2009

This is Performance of Asian Export

    This is Overview of Asian Exports' Performance:

  • China: Chinese exports contracted 2% y/y in November, though imports slumped more. Trade surplus $40.2b, the 4th consecutive record monthly trade surplus as commodity prices falls eroded import growth. Processing trade components have shown the sharpest slowing
  • Japan: Exports fell 26.7was down -7.7% yoy in Oct-08 (biggest drop in 7 years), export volume was down -6.1% yoy. Exports to developed nations are expected to fall further and will likely have a negative impact on Japan's already slowing exports to Asia
  • Singapore: Exports fell 17% y/y in November, the seventh month of contraction. Govt expects exports to contract by 4% in 2008; exports fell 5.7% in Sep (-13.9% in Aug) led by electronics, pharma, semiconductors. non-electronics fell -1.9%; exports to EU fell -23.6% and to U.S. fell -24.5%
  • Taiwan: Exports contracted sharply in November plunging about 20% y/y, driven by a sharp drop in exports to other Asian countries since September. All tech exports declined drop in exports to China was particularly sharp (down 40% y/y)
  • Malaysia: Exports fell 2.6% in Oct led by lower electronic and commodity exports after growing 15% in Sep. Export growth moderated in Q3 but stayed firm at 16.9% (Q208: 20.8%) due to high exports price and sustained demand of resource-based products; global slowdown, easing oil, commodity prices pose risk to commodity exports and current a/c surplus
  • S.Korea: Korean exports contracted 17% y/y in November, the second month of double digit contraction. Korean government expects only 1% export growth in 2009. Slowing IT, semiconductor exports; export growth led by price not volume gains; oil prices will lead to current a/c deficit this year
  • Hong Kong: volume of domestic exports fell -24.1% in July, re-exports rose 8.8%, volume of total exports rose 7.3%, volume of imports rose 10.9%; exports to U.S. and Japan and also China declining.
  • Thailand: Contribution of net exports to GDP might fall to 13% in 3Q08 from 16% in 2Q08. Export volume might grow 6.2% yoy Q3 from 9% yoy in 1H08
  • Philippines: Jan-Jul trade deficit rose over 200% y/y on oil, rice and steel costs; resilience of non-electronic exports due to price than volume effects; commodity correction pose downside risk to non-electronics primary goods exports
  • Indonesia: Exports fell 11.61% in Oct on declining oil and gas exports (-25.72%) as well as non-oil and gas exports (-8%); exports to China, India helping offset weakness in U.S. In Jan-Oct, exports increased 26.92% y/y. Exports slowed to 14.3% y/y in Q3
  • Vietnam: Export turnover falling on decreasing crude, coal, and rice prices; Weak sales in apparel, coffee, seafood slowed exports to U.S. but exports as a whole increased 39% in Sep (fastest growth since 2005)
  • India: Exports growth declined -12.1% y/y in Oct (first time since 2001) amid US and EU recession after growing 10.4% in Sep and 30.9% in H1-08. Earnings of IT exporting companies hit on U.S. slowdown as U.S. (financial) companies (a/c for 60% of service exports) slow their IT spending

Some Issues About January's BI rate

There are some Issues after BI lowering the rate:

  1. Indonesia Cuts Interest Rate by Surprise Half Pointfrom bloomberg : http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVt6PEEAp1AM
  2. BI Rate Lowered 50 bps to 8.75% from Bank Indonesia: http://www.bi.go.id/web/en/Ruang+Media/Siaran+Pers/sp_110109.htm
  3. Indonesia: Looking At More Rate Cuts Ahead from UOB: http://www3.uobgroup.com/assets/pdfs/Flash_0107.pdf


Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Five Recent Indonesia Economic Issues: First Week of January 2009

  1. Indonesia`s measures to fight global slowdown from Antara : http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2009/1/6/indonesias-measures-to-fight-global-slowdown/
  2. Global Economic Outlook from HSBC: http://www.vietstock.com.vn/eDocs/book.aspx?id=684
  3. Emerging Market Daily from Citigroup: https://www.citigroupgeo.com/pdf%2fSAP23359.pdf
  4. Indonesia Inflation Slows from Wall Street Journal: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123118198241054545.html?mod=rss_whats_news_asia
  5. Indonesia to spend savings to boost economy from Financial Times : http://www.ft.com/cms/s/4a06a124-db84-11dd-be53-000077b07658,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F4a06a124-db84-11dd-be53-000077b07658.html%3Fnclick_check%3D1&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rgemonitor.com%2F397&nclick_check=1

Isu-isu Ekonomi Global Minggu Pertama Tahun 2009

Catatan isu ekonomi global ini diperoleh dari berbagai sumber, tapi Nouriel Roubini merupakan kontributor terbesarnya:

Isu-isu ekonomi global dalam minggu ini tersebut antara lain yaitu:

  1. Global Economic, Financial And Political Outlook
  2. U.S. Payrolls Continue To Shrink As Lay-Offs Witness A 1970s Type Trend
  3. U.S. Auto Sector Woes Worsen On Plunging Auto Sales
  4. U.S. Service Sector Continues To Take A Hit From The Recession
  5. Obama's Large Stimulus Plan: Tax Cuts, Aid For States To Play Pivotal Role
  6. Canadian Unemployment: Will It Rise Dramatically?
  7. Fiscal Reform In Brazil
  8. UK: Nationwide Price Index: Expected To Continue To Slide From -13.9% To -14.6%
  9. Boe Rate Decision – Market Is Waiting For A 50bps Cut From 2.0% To 1.5%
  10. Question Mark Over Bulgaria's Economy: Strengths And Weaknesses
  11. Risks Rising In Poland, But Economy Still Strong Compared To Regional Peers
  12. Should The IMF Have Required Devaluation In Latvia?
  13. Czech Republic Assumes EU Presidency: Is It Up To The Challenge?
  14. Ukraine-Russia Gas Crisis: Gas Shortages Spread Across Europe
  15. Russia: Crisis Affecting Migrant Workers
  16. Kosovo In Limbo: Ethnic Violence On The Rise
  17. India Continues With Fiscal And Monetary Stimulus Packages As Risks To The Economy Grow
  18. Political Risk Exacerbating Crisis Response?
  19. Political Risk In Asia
  20. Strategic Petroleum Reserves And Oil Price
  21. GCC And Oil Exporter Surpluses
  22. Chinese Fiscal Stimulus: How Effective?
  23. Russian Inflation
  24. Ukraine’s Plunging Industrial Output And Its Implications
  25. Kazakhstan In 2009 : Further Slowdown
  26. Africa In 2009 : The Crisis Bites Harder
  27. Will The Financial Crisis Undo The Positive Development In Nigerian Banking?
  28. Kenya’s Widening Fiscal Deficit: A Cause Of Concern In 2009?
  29. Is It Time To Buy Distressed Debt?
  30. From Basel II To Basel III
  31. Work On EMU, And Finance And Banking Outlook

Semoga bermanfaat bagi semua..

Monday, January 5, 2009

Efek Januari 2009 dalam Struktur Perekonomian Indonesia

Efek januari lebih sering ditemukan dalam pasar modal dimana pada awal tahun sebagian besar fund manager melakukan pembelian saham lebih agresif dalam membentuk horizon baru portofolionya dalam tahun ini. Di bursa saham efek januari terjadi secara signifikan dan sanggup mendorong bursa saham meningkat sampai dengan 1.437,34 atau 6,04% dari penutupan sebelumnya. Namun pertanyaan tentang apakah efek januari di pasar modal akan menjadi momentum baik bagi perkeonomian Indonesia menjadi menarik untuk di telaah lebih lanjut.
Seolah coba memanfaatkan momentum pemerintah SBY-JK sejak akhir tahun 2008 silam mencoba membentuk optimisme pelaku ekonomi di tahun pemilu ini melalui beberapa rancangan stimulus ekonomi. Tambahan dana segar pada perekonomian Indonesia sebesar 50 Triliun rupiah serta perpanjangan sunset policy, penaikan harga gabah petani serta pemberian sinyal untuk menurunkan beberapa komoditas adalah beberapa stimulus yang diharapkan akan memberikan efek postitf terhadap perekonomian Indonesia seperti efek januari pada sektor finansial. Hal tersebut akan menarik ketika timbul pertanyaan apakah rancangan tersebut akan dapat memenuhi ekspektasi masyarakat terhadap perekonomian Indonesia.
Beberapa indikator ekonomi yang dipublikasikan awal tahun ini sepertinya akan memberi petunjuk bahwa upaya pemerintah dalam membentuk ekspektasi tahun 2009 yang lebih optimis tidaka akan dapat terwujud dengan mudah. Kondisi ini berbeda dengan stimulus Obama yang langsung dapat memberikan optimisme terhadap perekonomian Amerika Serikat. Perbedaan ini tidak terlepas dari struktur pereknomian Indonesia yang berbeda dengan struktur perekonomian negara lainnya.
Secara sekilas-pun tampak berdasarkan data inflasi yang dikeluarkan oleh BPS bahwa Indonesia berada dalam struktur perekonomian dengan rigiditas harga yang sangat tinggi. Struktur perekonomian dengan rigiditas upah yang tinggi tidak terlepas dari struktur upah yang berada dalam rezim yang sangat kaku mealui kebijakan upah minimum. Akibatnya, penurunan harga BBM yang terjadi tidak dapat secara sempurna di respon oleh sisi penawaran seperti ketika merespon kenaikan harga BBM. Struktur tersebut diperparah oleh perilaku memonopoli yang dilakukan oleh para monopolis.
Hal yang tidak kalah pentingnya adalah terdapatnya dualisme struktur perekonomian di Indonesia. Masyarakat Indonesia tidak didominasi oleh kaum pekerja, namun ada unsur petani, nelayan dan sektor informal yang tidak memiliki penghasilan tetap untuk berkonsumsi. Masyarakat yang bergerak di sektor-sektor ini secara struktural sangat bergantung terhadap kredit baik untuk konsumsi maupun berproduksi. Cerita kegagalan kredit murah terhadap karakteristik masyarakat seperti ini menunjukkan ketidakmampuan pemerintah membaca struktur perekonomian Indonesia.
Lalu apa yang harus dilakukan pemerintah untuk menghadapinya? Cara pertama yang dapat dilakukan adalah mengubah struktur tersebut atau kita menghadapi struktur tersebut.
Cara pertama sepertinya tidak mudah dilakukan oleh pemerintah. Upaya pemerintah untuk mengubah struktur ini dilakukan melalui pembentukkan komisi persaingan usaha dan upaya mengubah rezim dari upah tetap via UMR menjadi upah fleksibel belum berjalan optimal. Namun kondisi tersebut belum dapat direalisasikan dengan baik, bahkan kebijakan mengubah struktur perekonomian Indonesia yang terakhir menemui kegagalan. Sementara itu, perubahan struktural untuk mentransformasi petani, nelayan dan sektor informal menjadi pekerja sektor industri formal diperlukan waktu yang cukup panjang.
Dalam situasi ini hal yang dapat dilakukan hanyalah dengan cara memberikan stimulus pada perekonomian baik dari sektor fiskal maupun moneter. Pemerintah telah banyak memberikan stimulus sementara Bank Indonesia tampak memberi sinyal tren penurunan suku bunga. Namun stimulus tersebut tampak sangat bias ke sektor industri yang berkaraktiristik upah yang rigid dibandingkan dengan masyarakat yang berada pada sektor pertanian dan informal.
Karakteristik sektor pertanian, perikanan dan informal yang sangat bergantung pada kredit sepertinya kurang lihai dibaca oleh pemerintah. Masyarakat yang berada dalam struktur ini tidak hanya memerlukan kredit produktif namun juga kredit konsumtif. Oleh karena itu, arah kebijakan BI pada tahun 2009 untuk membatasi pertumbuhan kredit formal dan pemberian kredit oleh pemerintah melalui KUR yang hanya berfokus pada pemberian kredit produktif perlu dikaji kembali.
Dalam kebijakan kredit terhadap masyarakat pertanian dan sektor iniformal harus diperhatikan upaya menjaga keberlajutannya melalui insentif terhadap perkembangan teknologi serta pembukaan akses pasar di sektor ini. Hal ini bermanfaat untuk menjaga agar kredit produktif dapat secara optimal didayagunakan oleh masyarakat. Namun kondisi ini menjadi tidak optimal karena jika tidak ada mekanisme yang tepat dalam menyalurkan kredit konsumsi masyarakat dalam struktur ini. Pola pemberian kredit konsumsi yang tepat juga memerlukan kredit konsumsi terbatas untuk mengentaskan mereka dari kemiskinan.

Sunday, January 4, 2009

Relevansi Koperasi Indonesia dalam Struktur Perekonomian Terkini

Koperasi dalam perspektif normatif merupakan badan usaha yang sesuai dengan amanat salah satu pasal dalam Undang-Undang Dasar 1945 (UUD 1945). Jika dibandingkan dengan jenis badan usaha lainnya, koperasi merupakan badan usaha yang menjadi ciri khas Indonesia sebagai sebuah bangsa. Institusi-institusi yang terdapat dalam koperasi dinilai merupakan representasi nilai-nilai yang menjadi ciri utama bangsa Indonesia.
Nilai-nilai khas perekonomian Indonesia dilembagakan secara formal dalam UUD 1945 pasal 33 ayat 1 yaitu (perekonomian disusun sebagai usaha bersama berdasarkan asas kekeluargaan). Lembaga yang merepresentasikan nilai-nilai tersebut oleh para “ekonom pancasila” ditunjukkan melalui koperasi. Terlepas dari debat tentang pemaknaan nilai-nilai formal tersebut, definisi koperasi sebagai badan usaha yang pemilik dan anggotanya juga merupakan pelanggan badan usaha tersebut (Ropke, 1987) mendukung proposisi tersebut. Sementara itu, Hanel (1989) mendefinisikan koperasi sebagai organisasi yang bertujuan memberikan profit kepada anggota melalui kegiatan ekonomi yang dilaksanakan secara bersama.
Dalam sistem perekonomian Indonesia karakter khas koperasi dibandingkan dengan badan usaha lainnya menjadikan koperasi sebagai badan usaha yang secara normatif penting dalam pencapaian kesejahteraan rakyat. Implementasi peran koperasi terhadap perekonomian di Indonesia pada umumnya dan masyarakat pada khususnya tertuang pada UU No.25/1992 tentang koperasi. Berdasarkan aspek normatif institusional, pengelolaan koperasi Indonesia yang didasarkan pada nilai-nilai dasar yang terkandung dalam UUD 1945 seharusnya akan dapat meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat, namun kontribusi positif koperasi terhadap perekonomian nasional belum optimal. Penelitian yang dilakukan oleh Mutis pada tahun mengidentifikasi bahwa koperasi hanya berkontribusi sebesar 5% terhadap perekonomian nasional (Hendar dan Kusnadi, 1999). Keterbaruan penelitian ini mungkin tidak mencukupi dalam membentuk opini dalam menjawab apakah koperasi masih relevan saat ini.
Untuk menjwabnya terlebih dahulu kita melihat potret koperasi saat ini. Dalam penelitiannya Tambunan (2008) menunjukkan fenomena bahwa sejak tahun 2000 aset koperasi nasional didominasi oleh koperasi simpan pinjam. Faklta dalam penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa posisi kredit mikro yang disalurkan oleh koperasi pada tahun 2002 mencapai 31% atau berada hanya setingkat di bawah Bank Rakyat Indonesia yang mencapai 46%. Kondisi ini didukung oleh penelitian yang dilakukan oleh Sulaeman (2004) dengan pendekatan kemanfaatan ekonomi yang menunjukkan keunggulan lembaga keuangan berbentuk koperasi. Jika dilakukan sebuah refleksi mengenai kondisi koperasi saat ini dengan memperbandingkannyaterhadap tujuan normatif dalam UUD 1945 dan UU No.25/1992, maka akan diperoleh jawaban mengenai relevansi koperasi di Indonesia saat ini.
Dalam tulisan ini, saya menggunakan analisis mikroekonomi kesejahteraan dengan mengambil contoh kasus koperasi pertanian Indonesia dengan beberapa simulasi untuk memberikan gambaran bagaimana seharusnya koperasi dikelola agar tetap relevan dalam kondisi saat ini namun juga tetap menjaga kemurnian aspek normatifnya. Dengan menggunakan model neoklasik penelitian ini menggunakan prinsip keterpisahan pasar pada sektor pertanian di Indonesia seperti yang dikemukakan oleh Benjamin (1992). Artinya tidak terjadi faktor simultan petani sebagai produsen dan sebagai konsumen. Asumsi utama dalam model ini adalah petani berada dalam koperasi yang menjual faktor produksi dan barang konsumsi. Simulasi dilakukan dengan dua model yaitu:
A.) Simulasi pertama dilakukan dengan petani sebagai anggota Koperasi dimana manajemen koperasi memberikan diskon sebesar α karena pembelian yang dilakukan secara masif untuk anggotanya baik terhadap faktor produksi maupun barang konsumsi. Sehingga diperoleh persamaan petani sebagai konsumen dan anggota koperasi sebagai berikut:

Max: U = U(Xm, Xa, Xp)
s.t. PmXm + (1- α) PaXa=Pp(Qp-Xp) - wL - (1- β) PFF - (1- γ) rK + sC

Sementara petani sebagai produsen dan anggota koperasi adalah
Y = π(L, F, K) + β PFF + γrK + sC

B.) Simulasi kedua dilakukan dengan petani sebagai anggota koperasi dimana manajemen koperasi memberikan harga yang lebih tinggi untuk kemudian akan memberikan tambahan pendapatan dengan menambah SHU-nya. Kondisi dimana petani sebagai konsumen dan anggota koperasi ditunjukkan oleh persamaan berikut ini.

Max: U = U(Xm, Xa, Xp)
s.t. PmXm + (1+ α) PaXa=Pp(Qp-Xp) - wL - (1+ β) PFF - (1+ γ) rK + sC


Sementara itu aspek pendapatan yang diperoleh petani sebagai produsen dan anggota koperasi yang merupakan konsekuensi dari model kedua ditunjukkan oleh persamaan berikut ini.
Y = π(L, F, K) - β PFF - γrK + sC

Dengan SHU yang diterima oleh anggota koperasi adalah sebesar
(Σ (ν - α). (Pa.Xa) (1+r)) + (Σ (ν - β). (PFF). (1+r)) + (Σ (ν - γ). (rK) (1+r)). Kondisi tersebut akan dengan jika koperasi memberikan SHU sebesar pada anggota koperasi di akhir tahun.

Berdasarkan dua model tersebut tampak bahwa simulasi pertama lebih menghasilkan kesejahteraan ekonomi yang lebih besar serta dilakukan dengan cara yang lebih efisien karena dapat memberikan biaya koordinasi yang lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan simulasi model kedua. Sehingga koperasi akan relevan dalam kondisi saat ini jika koperasi dikelola dengan model pada simulasi pertama dibandingkan kedua.